Many families observed Mother’s Day this past weekend, though celebrations looked different for many because of COVID-19. For people who have lost their mother, have complicated relationships with their mother, or hoped to become a mother but were unable to, the holiday can bring up mixed and sometimes painful emotions.
Recent data about the nation’s birthrate highlights trends that affect those who are childless by choice or circumstance and sheds light on broader demographic and social consequences.
A pandemic baby bust
When the pandemic began, commentators debated whether increased time at home would lead to a baby boom or a baby bust. New data provides a clearer answer.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest National Center for Health Statistics report showing that U.S. births declined more than 6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. These figures include December 2020, the month that would reflect conceptions after the pandemic began.
U.S. population growth has been slowing for several years, and the pandemic intensified that trend with fewer births, more deaths, and reduced immigration.
According to the National Center for Health Statistics, there were 3.6 million births in the United States in 2020 — a 4 percent drop from 2019 and the lowest annual total since 1979. The birth rate for 2020 reached a record low of 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44. Births have fallen for six consecutive years, averaging a roughly 2 percent decline annually.
Concerns about the pandemic are an obvious factor in this decline, but longer-term pressures also play a role. High student loan debt, rising housing and healthcare costs, childcare shortages, and challenges balancing work and family life discourage some people from starting families.
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Our graying nation
Falling birth rates have ripple effects over time, as seen in other aging countries such as Japan, which now has one of the world’s oldest populations.
In 1990 about one in eight people in Japan were age 65 or older. Today roughly one-quarter of Japan’s population is 65+, and projections suggest that by 2050 one in three people may be that age. Japan’s post–World War II baby boom was followed by sustained low fertility, producing the current high share of older citizens.
In the United States, the Census Bureau projects that by 2034 seniors will outnumber children: people 65 and older are expected to total 77.0 million while children under 18 are expected to number 76.5 million. This “graying” results from longer life expectancies, lower birth rates, and declines in immigration.
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Long-term impacts of decreasing birth rates
Fewer births have wide-ranging long-term implications for society, the economy, and how we care for older adults.
Fewer caregivers
A smaller younger population means fewer potential caregivers for an aging population, whether paid professionals or unpaid family members. The U.S. already faces a caregiving shortage: many caregiving jobs are low paid and physically demanding, and fewer people are available or willing to fill them.
Declines in immigration further reduce the pool of possible care workers, compounding the difficulty of meeting growing demand for long-term care.
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Less Social Security revenue
Declining birth rates also affect the tax base and the sustainability of programs like Social Security, which millions of retirees rely on for monthly income.
Social Security is funded by payroll taxes from workers and employers; current workers’ contributions pay benefits for current retirees. Because the workforce is shrinking while the number of beneficiaries grows, projected trust fund reserves are expected to be depleted around 2037. After that, incoming payroll taxes may cover an estimated 76 percent of scheduled benefits unless policymakers change benefits or revenue sources.
More soloagers
One notable consequence of fewer births and changing family structures is the rise of “soloagers” — older adults without a spouse or living adult children to rely on.
The divorce rate for people aged 50 and older has more than doubled since 1990. This increase in “silver divorces,” together with declining fertility, suggests a growing number of older adults will age without immediate family support. AARP reports that in 2000, 16 percent of Americans 85 and older had no living adult children; by 2040 that share could exceed 20 percent.
Soloagers may lack family to help with age-related care needs, financial or legal matters, or medical decision-making. As more people remain childless by choice or circumstance, the number of seniors facing these challenges is likely to rise.
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Addressing the influx of soloagers
Higher divorce rates and lower birth rates mean a steady increase in soloagers. Many of these individuals will enjoy healthy, fulfilling retirements supported by friends and extended family, but there are important planning considerations for those aging without close kin.
Legal preparedness is essential for soloagers. Documents such as a will, durable power of attorney, and advance directives help ensure their wishes are followed if they become unable to make decisions.
Planning for long-term care is also critical. Without adult children or a partner to provide care, soloagers may prefer options that provide built-in care services, such as continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) or life plan communities, which offer a continuum of care as needs change.
If you want to explore life plan communities in your area, consider using community search tools to compare options and learn more about services and care levels available.